Doubting Durant
Ok, I admit it. I’m not sold on Kevin Durant as the “second coming.” He’s a talented scorer and the clear cut #2 pick in the draft, but I’m just not sure if he’s a guy who will guarantee a franchise a string of NBA Finals appearances. Here’s why.
Take a look at some of the Kevin Durant highlight compilations on Youtube. In them he showcases unlimited range, a remarkable array of pull-up and fadeaway jumpers, and the ability to get off a balanced shot from almost any position. With those moves there is no doubt that he can score 30 points a game in the NBA.
Still, there are many things you don’t see, and it’s not because they weren’t included in those specific videos. Durant doesn’t attack the basket from the low post and he rarely beats his defender off the dribble for an easy dunk or layup. Without those skills Durant will not draw double teams in the NBA—it’s just not worth double teaming a guy who doesn’t come within 10 feet of the basket. If Durant doesn’t learn to attack the rim he can still be a great scorer and an all-star, but he won’t be a guy who raises the play of his teammates to the next level.
While Durant is still only 18, his poor workouts have cast doubt on whether he will ever develop those penetration skills—and no, it’s not his widely publicized, but insignificant bench press numbers that are problematic, but rather his speed and agility. Overall Durant finished 78th out of 80 players. He finished behind Oden in the sprinting drill and behind both Oden and Spencer Hawes in the agility drill (although he did barely beat Hawes in the sprint.) People less agile than Spencer Hawes do not develop Tracy McGrady-like penetration skills, and they do not attack the basket in an Amare Stoudemire-like frenzy.
So where does that leave Durant? Well, for just a minute think about the Durant “scouting report” I’ve laid out. It’s an almost perfect description of the offensive game of another highly touted college player. Somebody who was picked in the top 10 last year. Somebody who enjoys playing Halo with J.J. Redick (Sonic fans—you may now want to avert your eyes.)
That’s right—Kevin Durant’s offensive game is extremely similar to that of Adam Morrison. If Durant were white (and didn’t rebound or defend) the Morrison comparisons would be the most hackneyed pre-draft story of the year. Just take a look at some of the Morrison stuff on Youtube. It features his deadly 12-18 ft jumper, the pump fake and pull-up over two defenders, and the 24 foot three pointer. It could easily have been Durant underneath that Gonzaga jersey.
That’s why I’m not sold on the Texas star. Durant as an NBA player could still be a little Ray Allen (with more size, rebounding, and blocks), a little Tracy McGrady (without the penetration skills), a little Carmelo Anthony (with more range and less posting up), and a little Kevin Garnett (with less defense, rebounding and blocks). He will be an all-star, he could win a scoring title, and he might win an NBA Championship. However, unlike LeBron James, Tim Duncan, or Dwyane Wade, I’m not sure he will make his teammates better just by stepping on the court. Like Morrison, Durant is a shooter, but 70% of the players in the NBA know how to shoot. It’s creating opportunities for teammates and playing tenacious defense that make a player unique, and there’s no guarantee that Durant will ever be able to do that.
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