Are the Dolphins Smarter Than Everybody Else?
Earlier this month the Dolphins announced that starting running back Ronnie Brown would return kickoffs. It was a curious decision considering that for many years the NFL’s conventional wisdom has said that it’s not worthwhile for key starters to return kickoffs. But is the conventional wisdom right? I say no. Here’s why.
Last season the difference in yards per carry between the best starting running back in the NFL and the 10th best was 1 yard. The difference in yards per return between the best punt returner and the 10th best was almost 3 yards. The difference in yards per return between the best kickoff returner and the 10th best was 3.5 yards. These numbers clearly indicate that for just one play, having a top notch return man is much more valuable than having a top notch running back. Moreover, a top notch kick returner fielding a kick at his own 10 yard-line is more likely to scamper 90 yards for a touchdown than a top notch running back who takes a handoff at his own 10 yard line. Despite all of this, teams rarely let their most dangerous open field players return a kick.
The main reason for this is a fear of injury. While it does seem that a lot of players are injured on kickoffs and punt returns, rarely is the return man the player injured. I don’t have any numbers to back this up, but as somebody who has seen a lot of football over the years my “expert” opinion is that most players injured on returns are blockers or guys hurling themselves into the wedge.
I would even venture to say that returning kicks is fairly safe. The returner can see everybody in front of him (so he doesn’t get blindsided like a receiver over the middle), and often the play ends with him running out of bounds. Returners also rarely end up getting tackled in dangerous dogpiles. I may be wrong, but in the last year the only significant return injury that comes to mind is B.J. Sams’ broken leg. I can think of a lot more players who were injured on normal plays from scrimmage, and I would be surprised if there were numbers that could show a player is more likely to be hurt returning a kickoff than he is taking a handoff and running straight into the line.
Two years ago a guy named Reggie Bush was one of the most dangerous kickoff returners in college football. Some might even say he was one of the most dangerous kickoff returners of all time. Yet when Bush arrived in the NFL his coaches did not feel that they needed the kickoff return skills of one of the most dangerous return men of all time. As a result Bush will continue to stand on the sidelines rather than have 4 or 5 more chances to make a game changing play. It’s a sad story really, but the same thing has happened to Deuce McAllister and DeAngelo Hall.
Tiki Barber was one of the best punt returners in the league from 1999-2001. However, when he became the featured back in 2002, the Giants decided they didn’t need him returning punts anymore. That year the Giants finished 27th in the league in punt return average, a full 5 -6 yards behind the league leaders. That means by not using Barber as a return man, it’s possible the Giants were on average sacrificing 6 yards of field position more than twice a game. Frankly, I would rather have had Barber return the punts and sit out a few 2nd and 8 runs up the middle.
Now let’s get back to the Dolphins. Because Ronnie Brown didn’t return kicks in college he’s an extremely odd choice to be the player who break the mold. Still, I applaud the Dolphins’ decision to get one of their best playmakers on the field for 2-5 more snaps a game—and these are not just any snaps, they’re snaps that have a high probability of turning into big plays. For years special teams has been neglected, and only recently are teams beginning to take note of the correlation between strong special teams. Using their most dangerous players as return men is just the next step.
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