Some Thoughts On MNF
–Andy Reid really mismanaged the Eagles in the redzone. At the end of the 3rd quarter the Eagles trailed 13-6 and had 4th and 4 at the Redskins 7 yard-line. Reid should have gone for it. Instead he kicked a field goal. Reid played it safe and did what the other 31 NFL coaches would have done, so I’ll give him a pass. Still, the right move was to try and tie the game.
Reid’s really egregious error occurred the next time the Eagles got inside the redzone. With six minutes left Philly trailed by 11 and had 4th and 3 from the Redskins 4 yard line. Reid elected to kick a field goal so they would be down by only one score. He again went for the safe move.
Here’s the problem. When you know you’re going to need a two point conversion it’s always better to go for that conversion as early as possible. That way if you miss, you have time to get another score. By kicking the field goal, Reid set the Eagles up so that if everything else went perfectly, they would have a game tying two point conversion attempt in the final minute. That’s not such a great scenario (I’d say about a 25% chance of having a 45% chance to tie the game). The Eagles never got to that point, but if they had scored a touchdown and missed the ensuing conversion attempt, the game would have ended.
If Reid could had gone for it and gotten the touchdown earlier, he would have had time to compensate for the missed two point conversion (by going for another touchdown or using onside kicks, aggressive defense, or more downfield throws). In this scenario the missed conversion wouldn’t have spelled the end of the game.
The other reason Reid’s decision was a poor one was that Eagles were just too close to the endzone to kick a field goal. When you need a touchdown and you’re inside the five yard-line you have to go for it. Even if the Eagles missed they still would have had the Redskins pinned deep. By kicking a field goal Reid got three points, but he gave up nearly 30 yards of field position on the kickoff. When that’s taken into account the payoff from getting the field goal is not nearly enough to warrant not going for it on 4th down.
–Kudos to ESPN. With their abbreviated version of PTI the have finally figured out something good to do during halftime. It’s more entertaining than the normal studio drivel, and because it’s only three minutes there’s no time for it to get slow or boring. In fact, other than NCAA tournament live look-ins, PTI is pretty much the best halftime entertainment possible.
–Clinton Portis is back. He looks better than he did at any point last year, and although splitting time with Ladell Betts will keep his stats from showing it, he’s going to have a monster year.
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