The Rivera-Jeter Postseason Paradox
With Mariano Rivera’s future as a Yankee in doubt, I figured it was time to revisit the paradox of calling both Rivera and Derek Jeter two of the all-time great postseason players. For both players (particularly Rivera) the numbers seem as though they cannot lie, but is there more than meets the eye?
First let’s start with Rivera. In 76 career postseason games he has an 8-1 record, a 0.77 ERA, and a WHIP well under 1.00. He also has four World Series rings. Those things seem to unquestionably make him one of the all time greats. But here’s the problem. Rivera has also unquestionably cost the Yankees two World Series titles (I’m of course assuming the Yankees would have beat the Cardinals in 2004.) In 2001 Rivera blew a World Series clinching game 7 in Arizona. Then three years later he blew an ALCS clinching game 4 in Boston.
Nobody knows if the Yankees would have won those first four World Series’ without Rivera (probably not), but if it weren’t for those two blown saves, the Yankees almost definitely would have won two more. So can a guy who cost his team two World Series rings still be considered one of the all time great postseason players? Absolutely. First, Rivera’s numbers are unreal. Second, and most importantly, as an opposing fan you hate to see him out there and as a Yankee fan you have complete confidence in him. That’s what being one of the greatest postseason pitchers of all time is all about.
Jeter, on the other hand, might be a different story. The Yankee shortstop is regarded as a great leader, and he was fortunate enough to be part of those four Yankees World Series titles. But here’s the problem with Jeter. Those Yankees teams were Paul Oneill’s teams. They were Tino Martinez’s teams. They were Bernie Williams’ teams. They were not Derek Jeter’s teams. Since that last title the Yankees have made the playoffs seven straight years (in the last five Jeter was team captain) and won exactly zero titles. In many of those years the Yankees were even overwhelming favorites. That doesn’t sound to me like a team that’s getting great leadership from a savvy postseason captain. To call Jeter a great postseason player because of his ability to captain the Yankees is completely crazy.
So can Jeter be considered one of the great postseason baseball players? I say no. Jeter’s career postseason average is .309. His career regular season average is .317. When you combine that with his 0-7 record as Yankee “leader”, there’s really no evidence to support him being one of the postseason greats.
(In some completely unrelated Yankees news, I recommend checking out this Phil Mushnick New York Post column in which Mushnick absolutely vilifies Mike Francesa for pretty much every single report or conversation he’s ever had regarding Joe Torre. This is not for the faint of heart.)
27 Comments »
someguy on 23 Oct 2007 at 2:19 pm #
this is th exact argument a-rod made to esquire magazine that caused jeter to stop letting a-rod sleep over at his house
Clashmore on 23 Oct 2007 at 2:40 pm #
This post is insane. Is Jeter the greatest playoff performer ever? Probably not. Is he one of the best. Certainly. You cite his .309 BA…he has 495 ABs. Since when is .309 a bad AVG? Billy Hatcher batted over 400 in his post-season appearances…is that reason to call him great?
Jeter is the career leader in postseason hits, AB, runs, total bases and is in the top 10 of nearly every other category. He made one of the greatest clutch defensive plays in the history of the game and has multiple gw hr’s.
He had a terrible postseason this year, no doubt. But saying he isn’t a great postseason performer is nothing more then anti-Yankee, anti-Jeter rhetoric.
tony on 23 Oct 2007 at 2:45 pm #
you from boston or something ? whats with the hate.you suck
Chris on 23 Oct 2007 at 2:53 pm #
Jeter also has 17 HRs in postseason play - a much higher rate than he’s hit them throughout his career. You also don’t factor in that the pitching is much, much better in the postseason, so being a .300 hitter (especially given the number of ABs Jeter’s had) is much more impressive in October.
Burnsy on 23 Oct 2007 at 2:54 pm #
When you play during the regular season, you face all the teams in your league. When you make the playoffs, you face the best teams in your league. Which means that batting .309 during the postseason is a remarkable feat no matter what your regular season average is. It’s impressive that his stats are so close, in fact.
Yogi Berra, who won 10 World Series and is a leader is many career Fall Classic categories, batted .285 during the regular season and .274 during the World Series.
And while you may say that those weren’t Jeter’s teams because he wasn’t captain, I’ll disagree with you there. The Yankees had NO captain at that time, and Jeter was the unquestioned face of that team. That’s who the media came to, that’s who many of the other players looked to. O’Neill was too brooding; Bernie and Tino too reserved. They were respected beyond compare, but they weren’t any more the leaders of those teams than Jeter was.
Jeter has owned New York since the Summer of 1998. He may not have good range and he may not be as good defensively as Tim McCarver wants us to believe, but he is absolutely one of the great postseason players of all time.
simon on 23 Oct 2007 at 2:58 pm #
but if it weren’t for those two blown saves, the Yankees almost definitely would have won two more…
You lost me there. The Yankees defeated the Red Sox in the most dramatic of fashions in 2003 and still got bounced in the World Series. Simply because he blew the 4th game of the ALCS doesn’t mean they would have won the World Series against the Cardinals that year.
As for the game 7 I guess I’ll give you that.
Pawtucket Pat on 23 Oct 2007 at 3:28 pm #
I’m a Red Sox fan and even I think this post is rubbish. This is just contrarian BS written because you had nothing better to talk about. Your logic is faulty and your “facts” are, at best, poorly applied. This is a terrible article.
jake on 23 Oct 2007 at 3:50 pm #
Everyone just destroyed the author on the Jeter debacle, so let me bail out Mo here since Simon came up a little short.
Game 7 against the DBacks. Grace leads off with a single, then Damian Miller bunts into what should have been a 1-6-3 double play, but Mariano throws it into center field. Because a closer, who fields roughly 25-35 ground balls a year, fails to make a decent throw to centerfield does not detract from his postseason abilities and performances. Womack follows with a broken-bat double, he hits Counsell, then Gonzalez dinks a game-winner to center. Yes, technically you can say he blew a lead, but it wasn’t like he pitched terrible. And the D-Backs had already faced him 3 times in that series, that doesn’t hurt either.
As for the Red Sox game…he blew Game 4! Not the series! They entire Yanks team shat themselves that particular series, not just one guy who had a bad inning and didn’t even take the loss!
They’ll let anyone write anything on this here interweb these days won’t they? And somehow it makes its way to Deadspin. Shame on you.
jake on 23 Oct 2007 at 3:50 pm #
Jeter long has been the face of the Yankees, but image doesn’t win, as borne out by the past seven years. He is an average shortstop. The signature impact of his captaincy has been his refusal to switch positions so that the best shortstop in baseball could play that position. Jeter has big postseason numbers because he has played in so many games. But he has never been the heart of a Yankees team, and it’s heart that wins in the postseason.
Rivera, in his prime, was the best. The fact that he blew a Game 7 save on a 120 foot soft liner over a pulled-in infield in 2001 (while a source of joy for everyone but Yankee fans) does not diminish his achievements. That the Yankees have continued to use him as their closer the past three or four years despite the fact that he no longer has the dominating stuff and endurance he once had is not so much an indictment of him as of Torre and his questionable loyalty to the guys he loves.
JD on 23 Oct 2007 at 3:58 pm #
Ughh…I can’t believe you’ve taken two COMPLETELY UNRELATED points (1. Jeter became captain of the Yankees 5 years ago, and 2. The Yankees have not won a World Series since 2001) and attempted to mash them together to validate your completely ridiculous thesis. Jeter’s captaincy has NOTHING to do with championships (won or lost). Please stop scraping the bottom of that rhetoric-laced barrel.
And, secondly, as has been observed, Rivera blowing Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS, which — by the by — went three more games after that night, does not equate to Rivera blowing a World Series title. I can’t believe I’m typing this. The ALCS and the World Series are two DIFFERENT events, AND the Yankees collectively choked their asses off in that series. To pin the next three losses on Rivera is just lunacy.
Do you cover sports for a major market newspaper? This type of column would fit right in.
JD on 23 Oct 2007 at 4:00 pm #
correction: Yankees have not won a WS since 2000!! don’t want to be called out on that one.
gary on 23 Oct 2007 at 4:02 pm #
I’d love to hear some support to the claim that Jeter wasn’t a leader of the ‘96 - ‘00 teams. It takes years of proven leadership to be named captain. It took Mattingly nine years and Gehrig twelve. Jeter was named captain after seven years, which shows he was a leader right out of the gate. Four championships out of twelve will put anyone in the discussion of all-time postseason greats.
Regardless, there’s not much point in trying to summarize the career (and all-time status) of a player who’s got about five more very productive years in him, and who knows what after that. Even now, only 28 players in baseball history (team leaders or otherwise) have more rings. And just as an interesting side-note, every one of them was a Yankee.
Egan Foote on 23 Oct 2007 at 4:50 pm #
I think your stats are actually incorrect on Rivera. According to baseball-reference.com, Rivera has played 76 postseason games (including this one), has a 0.77 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP. Pretty astounding and a full earned run lower than what you stated above.
And yeah, Rivera blew 2 saves in year’s they didn’t win the World Series. He blew 1997 as well. But anyone who watched those 76 games knows that he is the best postseason reliever of all time, simply put.
Egan, out.
Franny Rios on 23 Oct 2007 at 5:02 pm #
Wow, I don’t even know where to start with this idiotic post.
First, I agree with Egan… and considering that the statistics on which you based this article are entirely incorrect, don’t you think you should remove the whole thing? Or do you still make the same argument despite basing it on completely incorrect information?
How about the fact that that the premise of your post deals with “greatness,” which is inherently comparative, yet you make absolutely no comparisons here. Since you are talking about “all-time greats” I challenge you to come up with one better than Rivera.
In conclusion, you’re an idiot.
dg on 23 Oct 2007 at 5:43 pm #
Two more notable post-season blown saves for Rivera:
Game 4 LDS (2007) against the Indians, with Yanks leading series best-of-five 2-1 (Sandy Alomar HR)
Game 6 LCS (2004) against the Red Sox, with the Yanks leading 3-1. (Varitek Sac Fly?)
Still a great post-season pitcher — but the halo burns brighter for Yankees.
Pettitte is actually a more interesting case than Jeter or Rivera. He has this reputation as a great big game pitcher, but his track record is mixed, at best. A case of the sample size being big enough to include the good, bad and ugly.
basmati on 23 Oct 2007 at 5:45 pm #
I don’t understand all the complaining here with regard to Rivera. The author of the post says:
“So can a guy who cost his team two World Series rings still be considered one of the all time great postseason players? Absolutely. First, Rivera’s numbers are unconscionable. Second, and most importantly, as an opposing fan you hate to see him out there and as a Yankee fan you have complete confidence in him. That’s what being one of the greatest postseason pitchers of all time is all about.”
In other words, he poses the question whether Rivera’s post-season reputation is overblown because of two crucial blown saves, but he concludes that his reputation is still deserved. Why is everyone killing him for this? Isn’t he even allowed to ask the question? He reaches the opposite conclusion for Jeter, of course, so he is fair game for the Jeter lovers.
A2THEBIZZLE on 23 Oct 2007 at 5:51 pm #
No need for all the stats — everyone just needs to know that the last time Jeter won a ring, he was playing with Dwight Gooden, Chuck Knoblauch and Glenallen Hill.
shakedownsports on 23 Oct 2007 at 7:05 pm #
Thank you basmati—it appears as though you’re the only one who actually read the post. All I’m doing is pointing out the irony in the greatest postseason pitcher of all time costing his team two rings. As for Jeter, he’s regarded as a player who steps up his game in the postseason when in fact his career average is higher during the regular season. It seems 14 or 15 of you need to work on your reading comprehension skills.
And sorry about getting the Rivera stat wrong—I looked it up on baseball-reference and just typed it wrong.
Egan Foote on 23 Oct 2007 at 8:45 pm #
My problem is with his analysis, or lack thereof. “Greatness” doesn’t exist in a vacuum, but rather as a comparison of some standard acceptance of what greatness is (or at least what “average” is). Instead we get incorrect statistics and an author who is working from the assumption that Rivera “cost” the Yankees two world series. From that starting point, there really is no wiggle room - no credit for what Rivera has done well, and established as true assumptions of what he has done badly.
The author dismisses whether the Yankees would have won 4 WS by saying “we don’t know,” yet still concludes that Rivera cost them the 2 world series. Am I the only one who sees how asinine this is? By starting from a place where judging his positive qualities is off-limits (”Nobody knows if the Yankees would have won those first four World Series’ without Rivera”), and without even addressing whether the Yankees would have made the two WS that Rivera “blew” without Rivera, we are forced into making assumptions that simply aren’t true; that is, we already assume he blew those, the Yankees would have made those two world series and he is the sole reason for their losses… so that really doesn’t leave much room for analysis, does it?
And let’s not forget that the author uses completely different standards of analysis for Rivera and Jeter. On one hand, the author looks at two MOMENTS that Rivera had (ignoring his mind-boggling statistics), while on the other hand he ignores any moments Jeter may have had, instead focusing on his batting average and record.
Ultimately, the whole thing makes the logic section of my brain hurt.
Egan, out.
http://eganfoote.wordpress.com
Adolph Oliver Nipples on 23 Oct 2007 at 9:53 pm #
Disclaimer: I am a Cincinnati Reds fan who thinks Derek Jeter is one of the most overrated defensive players in history. That said….
Do you realize that there is virtually no difference between a .309 batting average and a .317 batting average? Over the course of 495 at bats, that means FOUR more hits. Do you seriously expect us to take your claim seriously when the only evidence you cite is nowhere near being statistically significant? Essentially your argument is: Jeter is a significantly worse performer in the playoffs because he gets .9% fewer hits than he does in the regular season!
I’m sorry, but I have to be blunt. That is the most moronic argument I’ve ever heard. You also conveniently forget to mention that Jeter’s home run rate and slugging percentage is higher in the playoffs. Guess those things don’t matter though right?
Your complete inability to comprehend basic statistics destroys any credibility you have as a baseball analyst. You erred by making an argument, and then finding statistics to back up your argument. A good analyst looks at the evidence first and then draws conclusions.
Looking at Jeter’s complete performance, it is virtually the same as his regular season performance. Given that the postseason involves higher pressure situations and a lower-scoring environment, that is mighty impressive.
Your Rivera argument consists of you criticizing him for not being infallible. There’s really not much to do with that other than blankly stare, blink a few times, and start a slow clap.
bgbeej on 23 Oct 2007 at 9:55 pm #
FINALLY - someone to call jeter out for the overhyped fraud he is. he has never been even the 2nd best player on any of those teams. A-rod puts up better numbers by the all star break but everyone loves jeter. he’s not even the best SS in NY. anyone who is complimented with intangibles is like a girl being described as having a “good personality”. he’s a marketing creation.
Clashmore on 23 Oct 2007 at 10:38 pm #
No work on reading comprehension needed. Your argument that Jeter is not a great postseason player is totally invalid. The fact that Jeter proved himself over such an immense amount of games is reason enough to consider him an alltime great. Chris Sabo batted over 500 in a world series. Is he great?
shakedownsports on 24 Oct 2007 at 12:03 am #
Unbelievable. It always amazes me how many people on the internet attack something without ever paying attention to what it really says. How can you say I gave no credit to Rivera? I wrote that he is one of the greatest postseason players of all time. I’m merely pointing out that while most players never get a chance to make a World Series-losing mistake, the greatest postseason pitcher of all time potentially made two of them. I just happen to find that interesting. I’m not bashing Rivera. Learn to read.
As for Jeter I’m not saying he’s not a good postseason player. All I’m saying is that Jeter has a reputation as “Mr. October” and there’s not a whole lot of evidence to support that.
It’s nice that you guys are analyzing my “scale of greatness” and scientific method in my reasoning, but these are just a few observations. Nothing more. I’m not trying to systematically create an algorithm for determining the greatest postseason players.
By the way, I think I just heard a 3rd grader saying Vinny Castilla was a better postseason player than Scott Brosius. Somebody defend him!!
Burnsy on 24 Oct 2007 at 9:56 am #
Now, see, even I wouldn’t argue that Castilla (who I can’t stand) is better than Brosius. And I even own a Scott Brosius 1998 WS MVP Beanie Baby.
And I, for one, realized that you were being complimentary to Rivera.
Side note….I couldn’t believe that, during Torre’s press conference last week, he didn’t note his biggest regret as keeping Mo in the bullpen in the 12th inning of Game 4 of the 2003 World Series. I know, I know….he would have been due to bat 3rd or 4th in the top of the 13th. But even that night, without the advantage of hindsight, I was prepared have given up the out if it kept Jeff Weaver off the mound. Ugh.
Egan Foote on 24 Oct 2007 at 1:41 pm #
You also forget to take into account that pitching is infinitely better in the postseason than in the regular season (due, in part, to the absence of Oriole/Devil Ray/etc. pitching) so Jeter’s equivalent, if not better, postseason numbers should be even more impressive. Jeter has 495 postseason at bats, so the sample size, similar to that of a full regular season, is clearly large enough.
Since you fail to define what makes a player great in the postseason, I will assert that one measure is someone who steps it up and performs above and beyond their normal regular season performance. Jeter clearly displays this quality.
And since Rivera’s statistics can be ignored and he can be boiled down to a few moments, we should note that Jeter has some moments of his own that display his postseason quality. Let us not forget his walk-off home run in game 4 of the 2001 World Series; the famous “toss” against the A’s in the 2001 ALDS; the Jeffrey Maier home run; and Jeter’s lead off double against Pedro in the 8th inning of game 7 of the 2003 ALCS against Boston, beginning the rally that ultimately ended with Aaron Boone’s walk off home run.
Finally, we should also not forget that Jeter was the MVP of the 2000 World Series.
Egan, out!
TC on 29 Oct 2007 at 5:04 pm #
The reason Jeter and Mo Rivera are considered all-everything post-season players is, in part, ESPN. I don’t think Mo needs a lot of glossing over to make him a pro. You printed his numbers and you understate why he is one of the best. Yes perhaps the Yanks could have won two more, but perhaps not. Jeter’s numbers are fair, and he’s a great leader. But ESPN sells themselves on big stars and they’ve decided to make Jeter a star. Don’t get me wrong, he’s fantastic, he’s a good role model, he’s a good player……but he’s only one player. I wouldn’t fault Jeter for the Yanks not having won the WS since ‘00. He’s certainly upheld his part of the bargain. If the GM makes stupid decisions, it’s the GM and owner’s increasing senility which is increasingly to blame. But it’s not Jeter’s fault.
overrateddd on 25 Feb 2008 at 11:54 pm #
that post is so true.
jeter might be the most over rated player in sports history.