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Week 11 Monday Afternoon TPS Report

Nov 19th 2007ericjhoroTPS Report & NFL

Week 11 is in the books and there’s one thought I can’t get out of my head: What would happen if Rex Grossman played for the 49ers? Think about that one for a second. Ok, now let’s move onto the good stuff.

Don’t Miss…

…The verbal sparring between John Kitna and Michael Strahan.

…Tony Romo injuring his coach with a high five.

…The Panthers giving up a ridiculous 94-yard TD return on a pooch punt because they only had 10 guys on the field.

…Adrian Peterson taking the next step in his recovery…running underwater.

…Roy Williams arbitrarily taking the blame for the Lions loss.

…George H.W. Bush motivating the Texans.

…Lovie Smith not being happy that Ron Turner forgot about Cedric Benson.

…The Baltimore Sun’s account of the Phil Dawson field goal shadiness.

…Brian Westbrook: The Eagles’ true most valuable player.

…Lane Kiffin denying that JaMarcus Russell will start on Dec. 2nd.

Tony Dungy Has Faith…But Not in His Defense

The most interesting coaching predicament on Sunday fell to Tony Dungy. With the score tied at 10 the Colts had 4th and 1 from the Chiefs 3-yard line with under two minutes left in the game. Rather than kick a field goal and trust his defense to stop the Chiefs, Dungy went for it so he could bleed the rest of the clock. Fortunately for Dungy, the move ended up paying off—the Colts got the first down and only three seconds remained on the clock when the Chiefs got the ball back. Brodie Croyle better remember this game—Dungy going for it because he feared what Croyle would do is probably going to be the highlight of young Brodie’s NFL career.

Idea #2,493 For Stopping the Patriots

What about playing a physical bump-and-run man-to-man defense with two safeties deep and a linebacker in the middle of the field? It’s worth a shot. On Sunday night the Bills almost exclusively dropped back into a zone or ran a zone blitz. That’s not going to get it done. Brady and Patriots offensive line are just too good for that. It was like taking candy from a really really weak baby. When the Bills defense did everything right they still gave up and easy 7-yard gain underneath.

Most teams are terrified to play man-to-man (because of screen passes, quarterback scrambles, double moves etc.), but there’s no chance of stopping the Pats with a zone. At least playing bump-and-run and man-to-man can throw off the Pats timing. It can prevent Brady from knowing who will be open before the ball is even snapped. It can take away the quick throws and can get the Pats offense out of rhythm. It might just be crazy enough to work.

Brian Billick is Not Very Pleased

The Ravens coach was not too gracious in his post game comments about Phil Dawson’s game tying field goal. Apparently the fact that the refs got the call right didn’t matter to Billick. He’s a firm believer that when a man thinks he’s won a football game, he gosh darn deserves to win that game. On the other hand I am willing to forgive Billick for being a bit crass—If I was 4-5 and my season rested in the hands of Kyle Boller, I would want any win I can get.

And Byron Leftwich Takes an Insurmountable Lead…

…in the contest to be the Falcons most atrocious quarterback!! Even though Joey Heisman led the team to two straight wins, Bobby Petrino decided to start Byron Leftwich. All it took was zero points and five turnovers for Petrino to realize that decision might have been a mistake. Here’s my advice for Petrino. Your team sucks. Next time you win two games in a row, stick with whatever you’re doing. Don’t try and win “better.” Take any win you can get.

The 49ers Ineptitude Is Scrambling Mike Nolan’s Brain

Every Sunday night I sit down and write a bunch of stuff criticizing the poor decision making of various NFL coaches. Usually it comes easy to me, but for the last hour I haven’t been able to figure out how to put into words the idiocy of Mike Nolan’s 4th quarter decisions. Now I’m finally ready to give it a try.

With under two minutes left in the game the 49ers held all three timeouts, trailed by 7, and had 4th and 10 from the Rams 29-yard-line. The key here is “trailed by 7.” The 49ers needed a touchdown. For some reason (most likely to pad Joe Nedney’s stats) Nolan decided to kick a difficult field goal.

Can you remember the last time a team trailed by 7 in the last two minutes and kicked a field goal? It wasn’t even like is was 4th and 29. It was only 4th and 10. Going for it was a no-brainer. Even if they missed, the 49ers still had enough timeouts to force a three and out and get the ball back with about 1:30 on the clock.

Ok, now lets move on. Nolan got the three points. The next move is too kick it deep, force a three and out, and get the ball back in good field position, right? Wrong. Nolan attempted an onside kick, a move that can’t be described as anything other than insane.

If you’re going to gamble with an onside kick, why would you not gamble on a much easier 4th and 10? It’s like Nolan kicked a field goal just so he could get a crack at the 49ers secret weapon, the onside kick. Even if the 49ers recovered they would have been 30 yards behind where they were on 4th down. Nolan made his decisions like the team had a better chance to recover an onside kick than convert a 4th and 10.

At the very least kicking it deep would have given the 49ers a chance if they got a three and out. Instead, when the 49ers failed to recover the onside kick the game was basically over. Even though they forced a three and out, Trent Dilfer was left with 90 yards,1:28 on the clock, and no timeouts. That’s not a good scenario.

Bonehead Moves of the Week

Eric Mangini/Norv Turner/Joe Gibbs/Brad Childress

Coaches everywhere went kick happy in Week 11. With eight seconds left in the first half the Jets had 3rd and goal from the Steelers 1-yard line. Eric Mangini didn’t even attempt to run another play. He was content to take the 3 points. Would Bill Belichick have ever made that move? Definitely not.

Early in the second half the Chargers trailed by 7 and had 4th and 2 from the Jags 39. Norv Turner decided to punt, and Mike Scifres boomed a 26-yard kick. It took Jacksonville just 5 plays to go 88 yard for a touchdown. At this point Norv Turner should just pull a George Costanza and do the opposite of every one of his impulses.

With two minutes left in the game the Vikings led by 7 and had 4th and 1 from the Raiders 38. A first down would have ended the game. Instead Vikings coach Brad Childress decided to kick, and Chris Kluwe boomed a 21-yard punt. Now brace yourself for some math that proves Childress’ idiocy.

A first down would have won the game—so I’m going to say the Vikings had a 60% chance of winning with a first down, and then a 75% chance of stopping the Raiders if they failed to get the one yard. That’s a 90% chance of winning (60% + (75% of 40%)). After the punt (with those precious 21 yards), I’m going to say the Viking had about an 80% chance of stopping the Raiders. There you go Brad Childress. By punting you increased your team’s chances of losing by 10%. Hooray.

Finally, I’d like to welcome back Joe Gibbs to the “Bonehead Moves of the Week.” Early in the second quarter the Redskins had 4th and 1 from the Dallas 32-yard line. That 49-yard field goal is a tough kick. Much tougher than running the ball for one yard. But Joe Gibbs loves himself some Shaun Suisham. He sent his kicker out, and Suisham promptly hooked the kick wide left.

Quote O’ the Week

“We have to evaluate the video from today and see who gives us the best opportunity as a team to win the game”—Bobby Petrino, on who will start next week. Something tells me it will be Joey Harrington.

Catch O’ the Week

The always delicious pink salmon. As for the action of the football field, Week 11 had its share of spectacular grabs. There was Drew Carter picking the ball off the back of Al Harris, Santana Moss showing off his right hand, Calvin Johnson outjumping the Giants secondary (notice the un-Randy Moss-like way in which he doesn’t push off), and Ronald Curry making a catch that was unbelievable, amazing, remarkable, and 99%-luck.

Stat O’ the Week

0-3. The Steelers record outside the states of Pennsylvania and Ohio

European Goal of the Week

Omer Golan scores in the 92th minute to give Israel a 2-1 victory over Russia in Saturday’s Euro 2008 qualifier. The win quieted conspiracy theorists who thought Israel would hand the match to Russia, and it kept alive England’s qualifying hopes.