It’s Time For “Academic Paper” Tuesday
Today’s paper comes from the October issue of the Journal of Economic Psychology. In it, the paper’s four authors argue that goaltenders move too much on penalty kicks.
In soccer penalty kicks, goalkeepers choose their action before they can clearly observe the kick direction. An analysis of 286 penalty kicks in top leagues and championships worldwide shows that given the probability distribution of kick direction, the optimal strategy for goalkeepers is to stay in the goal’s center. Goalkeepers, however, almost always jump right or left….The seemingly biased decision making is particularly striking since the goalkeepers have huge incentives to make correct decisions, and it is a decision they encounter frequently.
According to the abstract (I’m not paying to be a JEP subscriber) the paper eventually goes on to discuss how the bias in goalies can be used to examine how people manage investments, and how workers decide how long to stay at their jobs.
From the meaningless unmathematical viewpoint of a sports fan, I’d have to say the conclusion of the paper sounds right. If a goalie stays in the middle of the goal it looks like he can still cover 35%-45% of the net. When a goalie chooses a side he is immediately giving up at least 2/3 of the net. If any 8-10 year olds want the secret to dominating their rec leagues, this is it. (Professional soccer players should also be paying attention.)
No Comments »