Shakedownsports.com

Jack Del Rio and the Jags defense had a decent gameplan on Saturday night. They took away the deep ball and made Tom Brady dink and dunk his way down the field—the hope was that a sack, penalty, or dropped pass would kill a few drives. At the very least, the Jags hoped that when the Patriots got deep into their territory, the short field would allow them be a little more aggressive and maybe, just maybe, hold the Patriots to a field goal.

Since the way to beat the Patriots is to not give up big plays, try and hold them to field goals, and hope your offense scores a touchdown every time, it was a pretty solid strategy.

The problem was that the Jags made two crucial mistakes. The first was that in an effort to take away the big play, the Jags made it way too easy for the Patriots to move the ball into their territory. They never blizted and they handed Wes Welker 9-yard catches on a silver platter. There’s playing it safe, and then there’s playing it too safe. The Jags were playing it so safe there was no chance of getting that penalty,sack, or dropped pass that would kill a drive.

(I actually think the Jags would have been better off onside kicking after every score. They were basically letting the Patriots stroll into their territory anyway—giving the ball to the Patriots at their 40 would have meant nothing, and they might have gained a possession or two.)

The second mistake the Jags made was not adjusting their strategy when the clock became a factor. In the 4th quarter it became clear the Jaguars needed a stop, and to get a stop they needed pressure on Tom Brady. Because the Jags front four hadn’t gotten a whiff of Brady all day, that meant blitzing. It was the 4th quarter. If Moss beats you deep, so be it. Getting pressure on Brady is what’s important.

Instead the Jags continued to rush four. They occasionally brought a 5th guy, but it was usually a defensive back or a linebacker on a delayed blitz. Nothing they brought was the pocket-collapsing type of stuff you need to force a Tom Brady incompletion. The Jaguars never got the stop and eventually they ran out of time.

The only way to beat the Patriots is to get pressure on Brady. The Ravens and Giants did it with three and four man fronts. The Eagles did it with all-out blitzing. However you do it, you need to get pressure because when Brady can sit back and stare at the defense for three of four seconds he’s automatic. That’s one reason why the Chargers might have a chance—they have a good pass rush, and in the end, that’s really all that matters when you play the Patriots. Right now, the most important player in what remains of the NFL season is Shawne Merriman. If he can repeatedly get to Brady, the Chargers have a shot at pulling off the upset. If he fails (and Aaron Kampman or Usi Umenyiora fail after him), the Patriots should have an easy road to a Super Bowl title.

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