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Roger Clemens claims he has never used steroids. Hooray. But is that really what his statement says? Let’s take a look at Clemens’ official denial:

I want to state clearly and without qualification: I did not take steroids, human growth hormone or any other banned substances at any time in my baseball career or, in fact, my entire life.

Ok. Sounds good. But does “I did not take” rule out “somebody injected in my ass”? Clemens could arguably say that his statement is the literal truth even if he actually had steroids injected in his ass. After all, “I” (meaning Clemens) did not actually do anything.

The whole thing is just like President Clinton re-defining what it means to “smoke marijuana” or “have sex.” Basically, Clemens is re-defining what it means to “take steroids.” It’s possible that in his mind (and by that I mean his lawyer’s mind) “taking steroids” is different from “having steroids put into your body.” I would just love to hear Roger issue another statement about whether or not he knowingly allowed steroids to enter his body.

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Here’s why the MLB winter meetings are an amazing event unique to the sports world: It’s the only time that any of the professional sports mimic a fantasy league. During the winter meetings 30 GMs continuously meet to talk about players and convince each other to accept one-sided trades. This year numerous GMs even filled the roles of token keeper league fantasy team owners.

The first place guy who overvalues his role players and won’t trade them to win another championship—Theo Epstein

Has Theo lost his mind? He really isn’t willing to give up both Jon Lester and Jacoby Ellsbury to get Johan Santana? He doesn’t think the best pitcher in baseball is worth a soft tossing lefty and speedy lead-off hitter—two types of players the minor leagues are overflowing with? I know he’s excited that Lester had a good September and Ellsbury played four good games in the playoffs, but those guys are as replaceable as middle relievers. Even the Pirates have an abundance of speedy center fielders and soft tossing lefties. Can you really say that Lester and Ellsbury are that much better than Nyjer Morgan and Paul Maholm. The Red Sox brass can convince themselves that their two guys are vastly superior, but it’s just not true. Lester can’t touch 90 mph and he walks a hitter every two innings. Ellsbury has no power. Neither are top prospects and both should already be in Minnesota.

Last place guy who jumps on all the highly rated but disappointing players who hit the waiver wire—Jim Bowden

You know the guy who picked up Morgan Ensberg and Barry Zito the second they were cut last year? That’s Jim Bowden. With little left to lose the Nats GM decided to take a chance on both Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge. It is possible both players will turn it around become big contributors. More likely, there’s a reason their original owners were willing to give up on them.

The middle of pack guy who panics and gives up too much for an overvalued past-his-prime player—Ned Colletti

You know the fantasy baseball owner who was still willing to trade C.C. Sabathia or Chris Young for Mark Prior even when it was clear Prior was finished? That’s Colletti. Andruw Jones just hit .226 in his contract year. He’s fat, he’s rich, he’s lazy, and he’s not returning to his 2003 form (which was also overrated).

The guy who mortgages everything to win now—Dave Dombrowski

To get Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis (as well as Edgar Renteria) Dombrowski gave up the future of the franchise. Anything less than a World Series title (or a long term deal from Miguel Cabrera) will make these moves a waste. The result of this trade will completely dictate how Dombrowski’s tenure is remembered.

The stubborn bottom feeding guy who wants the whole farm for his one stud—Bill Smith & Andy McPhail

I actually think both these guys did the right thing in holding on the Johan Santana and Erik Bedard. Both of them are in strong negotiating positions and neither were offered a great deal. Still, you know the teams at the top of the league (Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers) absolutely resent this.

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Not every team wants to sell the naming right to an entire stadium—sometimes you end up looking like an idiot when the company screws it’s employees, is convicted of fraud, and goes bankrupt (it’s a shame that Minute Maid Park just doesn’t have the same ring as Enron Field).

To circumvent this problem the Braves have come up with a solution. Sell the naming rights to part of your stadium.

Atlanta-based SunTrust Bank has reached a deal to put its name on a new Turner Field seating section designed to appeal to the Braves’ more affluent fans.

The new section, scheduled to be completed by the start of next season, will include 158 seats closer to the action than any others at Turner Field. The seats will come with such amenities as unlimited food and beverage, valet parking, a private stadium entrance and access to a 5,000-square-foot lounge being built adjacent to the Braves’ clubhouse. The seats also will come with a steep price tag: as much as $300 per game or $24,900 per season.

As always, the justification from the sponsor is downright hilarious.

The Braves’ “high level of performance on the field and their service to the community is consistent with our philosophy of serving our clients’ financial needs and supporting the communities where we live and do business,” Jenner Wood, chairman, president and CEO of SunTrust Bank’s Central Group, said in a statement e-mailed to the Journal-Constitution.

Translation: We think the really rich people who sit in those seats will subconsciously begin to associate our brand with posh opulence and having a lot of fun.

Overall, the whole arrangement sounds like a win-win situation. The Braves make money, Suntrust markets themselves, and rich people get to talk on their cellphones without being interrupted by the normal riff-raff at the stadium who cheer during the game. I’m already looking forward to seeing some affluent Atlantans spill their imported beer as Jeff Francouer airmails throws from the warning track into the backstop.

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The Dodgers just made a lazy fatty who hit .222 last season the 5th highest paid player in baseball. At least now Rafael Furcal doesn’t have to be self conscious about being the most overpaid player on the roster.

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Miguel Gets Cabrera Traded, Decides Not to Be a Fatty

The Tigers pulled off the blockbuster move of the day, acquiring Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis for Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin, and a slew of minor leaguers.

I like the move for the Tigers because people still don’t realize how good Cabrera is. He’s had four seasons in which he’s averaged about 31 home runs, 115 RBIs, and a .320 batting avg.—-and he’s only 24 (and losing weight!!!).

Scouts love Maybin and Miller, but that’s exactly the problem. They’re both toolsy guys and the drool coming from the mouths of scouts has prevented them for seeing that both are far from sure things. Entering 2008 Maybin has only played 30 games above class A, Miller has played 28, and both players struggled in the majors last year.

Still, the key to the deal will be Willis. Over the last three years his BB/9 IP have gone from 2.1 to 3.4 to 3.8. A move to the American League will only make things more difficult, but if Willis can win 15 games and keep his ERA under 4.00 it will be a great deal for the Tigers. If he keeps pitching like he did last season the Marlins will have themselves quite a haul for just one good player.

The Blue Jays Need to Pull the Trigger

One deal that has to be made (if you’re Toronto) is the rumored Alex Rios for Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum swap. The Giants are reportedly willing to part with Lincecum for Rios, but would want an additional player in return for Cain. Regardless of which pitcher they acquire, this is a deal the Blue Jays have to make. Rios is a nice outfielder, but both Cain and Lincecum have the chance to be aces. The Blue Jays glut of outfielders means they’ll basically be adding a front-of-the-rotation starter with little drop off in their lineup.

Bedard to Stay Put?

My one winter meeting prediction: Erik Bedard will remain an Oriole

So far teams haven’t met the steep price the Orioles are asking for, and once Johan Santana is dealt that price could get even steeper. Last year Bedard had a better year than Santana, and he’s signed through 2009. Based on that the O’s could make a reasonable case that Bedard is more valuable than Santana.

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New White Sox outfielder Carlos Quentin doesn’t just have all five conventional baseball tools, he has a 6th tool—perspective.

The above video aside, I love the deal for the White Sox. Anytime you can trade a guy in single A for a legitimate major league-ready outfield prospect, it’s a good deal.

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The news that A-Rod is talking to the Yankees without Scott Boras is flat out shocking, but when you think about it, not having an agent can actually be the best economical move.

I’ve long wondered why free agents overwhelmingly sign with the team that offers them the most money, even when it means leaving teammates and uprooting families. Most athletes are already extremely wealthy, and so it doesn’t make sense that money is almost always the #1 factor.

The explanation is that there is a difference between a players’ best interest and the agent’s best interest. For players, keeping their kids near their friends is important. Playing with teammates they like is important. Living in a city they like is important. All of these fringe benefits are crucial in determining their best contract offer.

Unfortunately, these fringe benefits mean nothing to agents (not counting their desire for their clients to have true happiness). For most agents, the best contract an athlete can sign is the most lucrative one. That’s all there is to it. The biggest contract gets an agent the biggest possible commission and it’s the best advertisement for acquiring future clients.

As a result, agents will often push for the contract that has the highest utility for them (lots of $$$), but not the highest utility for their player (no fringe benefits). This is what is happening with A-Rod and Boras. (Obviously there’s no way agents can’t always convince players to sign wherever the agent wants, but I’m sure there’s some “they’re lowballing you and don’t respect you”-type conversations they use to steer clients toward the highest bidder.)

A-Rod clearly wants to play in New York because he likes the city and the team. He values those things. Boras, on the other hand, doesn’t care about them. He just wants a Scrooge McDuck-like pile of money to swim in. The good news for A-Rod is that he’s figured this out before it got too late. He’s realized that Boras doesn’t want what’s best for him and he’s made the economically efficient move to go forward without an agent.

That sound you hear is the economist inside me respectfully applauding.

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Thing That I Didn’t Like: The contract the Yankees gave Jorge Posada.

Let me preface this by saying that the Yankees had to re-sign Jorge Posada. They didn’t have a choice. They’re losing A-Rod, the rest of their lineup is old, and Mariano Rivera might not be back. There would have been a riot if they didn’t sign Posada. With that said, the contract they gave him is horrible. Four years and $52 million? That’s absurd. The only good thing about it is that in two years it will have made people forget about Kei Igawa.

The most important thing to remember is that Jorge Posada is a 36-year old catcher. Three years ago, when Jason Varitek was a 32-year old catcher, the Red Sox signed him to a 4-year, $40 million contract. Since then his average season has been a .260 batting average with 17 HRs and 64 RBIs. Right now Posada is four years older than Varitek was and he’s played in 600 more games than Varitek had played in at that point. That does not bode well for the future.

Last year Posada had a career year (in his contract year), but that was an anomaly. From 2000-2006, Posada was remarkably consistent. He never batted higher than .287 or lower than .262. He always had at least 19 home run and 71 RBIs, but never more than 30 homers and 101 RBIs.

So what’s more likely—one of the most consistent players in baseball finally figured something out at age 36, or that he worked his ass off in a contract year and batted 51 points higher than his career best? I’m going to say option B.

The Yankees got their man, but they’ll be lucky if Posada can match his 2000-2006 numbers for even a year or two. By 2010 the deal will be harder to get out of than a Sprint cell phone contract.

Thing That I Liked—The Colts signing Simeon Rice

The problem with Rice is that he’s purely a pass rusher. He doesn’t play the run at all and that makes him a terrible fit for 99% of NFL defenses. Fortunately, the Colts defense is in that 1%—they unleash Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis on the quarterback on almost every single play, and their defense is designed so that the defensive ends don’t have to play the run. Rice won’t be the same guy that Freeney was, but there’s a decent chance he can step in and give the Colts what they need.

On the other hand, Denver cut him, and one would think that with a lackluster pass rush and Jarvis Moss already out for the season, the Broncos would hold onto any defensive end who could move.

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Good news. It turns out 80% of MLB general managers are able to convince Bud Selig to stop being an idiot. Selig has long been a staunch opponent of instant replay, but after MLB GMs voted 25-5 in favor of exploring its use Selig says he will reconsider his stance.

Well, that’s a start.

Selig is still concerned about instant replay causing a lot of delays. Apparently he enjoys the delays that occur when managers come out of the dugout to argue calls that have no chance of being overturned, but he thinks the much shorter replay delays that actually accomplish something will ruin the game. If replay is eventually used, at the start it will only be for “boundary calls”—which basically means just for disputed home runs calls. Hopefully at some point “safe or out” calls will be added as well.

All of this is good news because it’s insane that there still isn’t instant replay in baseball. What if there had been conclusive evidence that Matt Holliday was out at the plate? Not having replay would have cost a team a playoff birth—that’s basically the worst thing possible. How could Selig defend not using something that prevents that? I guarantee if replays had showed Holliday was out the ensuing PR fiasco would have Selig championing replay as much as possible. So why should he wait for a disaster to happen before taking action?

For right now, the baseball people in favor of replay need to push it as hard as possible and begin working on a plan. It should be fairly easy. Just give each manager two challenges a game. Give him a third if he gets the first two right. Same as football. The only foreseeable problem is that every close but still obvious call in the 9th inning could end up being challenged, but MLB should be able to get around that by finding a way to punish teams for missed challenges. Can you imagine a baseball future with no blown calls? The sports world will be knocked of its axis. It will be like when the NCAA figured out a 64 team tournament would be really easy to gamble on.

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