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If you’re interested in some fake analysis, check out this article. If you’re interested in some real analysis, there are two points I want to make.

First, the Giants chances rest solely on their ability to get to Tom Brady. The key to Brady’s success (and Peyton Manning’s for that matter) is the fact that he usually has all day to throw. Brady is a great quarterback, but there are 5-10 other guys in the NFL who could put up MVP numbers if they had that kind of protection. Look at any game the Patriots or Colts have lost or nearly lost in the last few years. In all of them their opponents were able to get pressure on the quarterback. The good news for the Giants is that in week 17 they got pressure on Brady with three and four man rushes. There’s no reason to think they can’t do it again.

The other thing I want to mention is what a big advantage it is for the Patriots to play the game in a warm weather. Despite being from New England, the Patriots are not a cold weather team. Wes Welker had spent his whole career in warm weather. Randy Moss had spent his career in warm weather or indoors. In the Patriots close calls against the Eagles, Ravens, and Giants (which were all in cold weather) Brady’s receivers dropped a lot of passes. If this game was being played somewhere else, the Giants could count on the cold forcing two or three drops.  Those two drops might not seem like a lot, but they could easily be the difference between a three-and-out and a 70-yard touchdown drive.

Since every other point about the game has been discussed to the point of overkill, I’ll leave you with a prediction.

Patriots 34, Giants 24.

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If you need anymore evidence as to why media day and the super bowl hype is the worst thing in professional sports, take a look at Plaxico Burress and “Guaranteegate.” (It doesn’t quite have the same ring as the other “gates.”)

A reporter who needed a story asked Burress for a prediction. Burress just said the first thing that came to mind. 23-17. He didn’t even specify which team would win.  His intention was to both be funny and dismiss the question. Burress’ answer had nothing to do with the actual game or his feelings about the game. The two numbers were his high school basketball and football numbers.

Of course now the whole thing is one of the biggest stories of the week. Tom Brady is responding. Burress’ teammates are responding. And it’s all because of one stupid question that Burress decided to answer with a tongue-in-cheek response instead of a “no comment.”

Here’s the big question I’m getting at: Isn’t this terrible journalism? How does asking Burress for a prediction accomplish any of the things journalists are supposed to be doing? There’s no new information. There’s no twist on old information. Nothing of value is added. The only outcome from these stories in an insignificant fake news cycle about a lighthearted comment. I know people have jobs, but writing these kinds of stories is the equivalent to writing about what D-list celebrities are pregnant. Nobody cares. Tell us something interesting about the game.

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It looks like the Rich Rodriguez-West Virginia saga is finally coming to an end, but that doesn’t mean the school is without scandal. As if the shady dealings and broken promises regarding Rodriguez weren’t enough, the West Virginia is also embroiled in a controversy regarding a phony MBA they gave to the daughter of the state’s governor.

You can read most of the details in this story, but basically Heather Bresch (who is the daughter of West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin and a high ranking corporate executive) lists an M.B.A. from West Virginia on her resume. However, when a Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reporter doing a background check called the school, the reporter was told Bresch never came close to earning the degree. In the weeks that followed the school repeatedly changed its stance on the issue, and emails were sent from high ranking administrators trying to cover up the fact that Bresch had never earned her M.B.A.

So perhaps you can see where Rich Rodriguez is coming from. Perhaps you still think he’s a rat.  Only one thing’s for sure—if the West Virginia president suddenly decides to “retire” so he can spend more time with his family, don’t be surprised.

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And here’s what I’m thinking…

The paparazzi are really shafting Bill Belichick with these Tom Brady pictures. Two weeks before the Super Bowl they’re letting the Giants know his star quarterback has a tender ankle. It all might turn out to be inconsequential, but Belichick can’t be happy if the Giants decide to try a little bit harder to get pressure on Brady. Perhaps this whole “scandal” is poetic justice for the most secretive, rule bending coach in the NFL. I’m still in shock that TMZ now has one significant deed to go up against the millions of insignificant one they’ve been a part of.

If anybody out there is a fan of teammate brawls there was a good one yesterday between Arsenal’s Emmanuel Adebayor and Nicklas Bendtner during a 5-1 loss to Tottenham. Bendtner emerged bloody amid reports of a powerful Adebayor headbutt. There’s something psychologically unique about two teammates fighting. You never hear about accounting firms where two employees attempt to beat the shit out of each other, but it happens all the time in professional sports. Yeah, athletes are competitive and passionate, but they’re on national television. Would you ever fight somebody (and risked getting your ass pummeled) if you knew millions of people would see it?

You know who else is fighting? Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Last week the Clinton campaign compared Brack Obama to Magic Johnson, calling him a “hyped rookie.” So what did the Obama people do in response? They sent out a list of Magic Johnson’s extensive rookie achievements. That’s some real solid campaign work.

Leandro Barbosa had his faith in human kindness put to the test. Next time he will use an alias.

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Oh Norv. Just when you had everybody convinced your past coaching missteps were ancient history, you go ahead and do something like this.

The Chargers were down two scores with nine minutes left to play. They had 4th and 10 from the Patriots 36. And they punted.

It was a decision that was stupefying, indefensible, and moronic. I can’t even imagine being a Chargers fan at that moment.  I would have thrown every object in my reach at the TV.  Down two scores with nine minutes left Turner gave the ball back to the most prolific offense of all time in order to gain 25 yards of field possession. Right then and there any hope of a comeback disappeared.

Turner was counting on forcing an improbable three-and-out, getting the ball back with seven minutes left, scoring a touchdown, forcing another improbable three-and-out, and driving for a winning field goal. That’s called having too much confidence in your defense. Or being somebody with the brain the size of a pea.

Turner’s fatal decision was just the culmination of a completely botched set of downs. The Chargers had 1st and 10 on the 36. Everybody but Norv Turner knew then and there that the Chargers were in four down territory and had to get at least a field goal (which meant getting the ball at least to the 30-yard-line.) But instead of trying to pick up some smaller chunks of yardage the Chargers through the ball downfield. Even on the 3rd and 10, a draw would have been a good call. That would have brought up a manageable 4th and short or put the ball in Nate Kaeding’s range. The Chargers did neither, paving the way for a coaching gaffe that will live on in infamy.

Other thoughts from Sunday…

—I understand that it’s difficult to go 19-0, but I’d really feel better about the Patriots being anointed the greatest team of all time if they didn’t keep getting outplayed by inferior teams for 40 minute stretches.

—Outstanding decision by Tom Coughlin to for it on 4th down right before halftime. Coaches will almost always punt the ball in that situation even though they could easily throw a hail mary and not leave enough time for their opponents to do any damage. The Giants didn’t get anything out of it, but it was a good aggressive call.

—The officiating in the Giants-Packers game was atrocious. There weren’t necessarily a slew of bad calls or one sided calls, but the officials made a ton of borderline game-changing calls that didn’t need to be made. The refs just didn’t let the players play.

For example, there are the two huge and unnecessary 3rd quarter personal foul calls. The first was a roughing the passer penalty on Nick Collins that kept alive the Giants go-ahead touchdown drive in the 3rd quarter. The call was borderline at best. There was nothing blatant and he didn’t do anything dirty. Two minutes later, on the Packers ensuing drive, the refs gave Green Bay a first down with an extremely subjective personal foul call on Sam Madison. Madison and a Packers defender were tussling after the play and the ref only saw what Madison did.

It simply wasn’t necessary to call either penalty. That’s the bottom line. I understand that the NFL needs to protect quarterbacks and keep players from brawling, but when it’s the second half of a conference championship game the league cannot allow officials to affect the outcome of the game by flagging an action that had zero effect on the play.

(By the way, my favorite part of that roughing the passer call was Eli Manning lying on the ground and pleading for a flag. Since roughing the passer could basically be called “The quarterback is too weak and girly to take a hit like a man,” it’s always funny when a quarterback is asking for it to be called.)

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Via Marginal Revolution come a new paper which concludes that college football causes crime. The paper, which is written by two University of Colorado Economics professors, has some very interesting results.

We find that college football games are associated with sharp increases in crime. For instance, assaults increase by about 9% when a community hosts a college football game, vandalism increases by about 18%, and DUIs increase by about 13%. We also find evidence that upsets result in larger increases in crime than games that do not produce an upset. For instance, an upset loss at home is associated with a 112% increase in assaults and a 61% increase in vandalism.

The moral? It probably wasn’t a good idea to be walking around Ann Arbor after the Wolverines lost to Appalachian State.

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Oh Chris Mortensen, when will you learn. You’ve spent the whole year being a target of those who love to mock you for your faulty reporting (Eli’s out for the season?). Why would you go ahead and have your name attached to the report that Tony Dungy has not made up his mind about retiring? I don’t care if Dungy actually hasn’t made up his mind. Whenever he does finally make a decision, it’s obvious from the evidence (his son transferred, Caldwell isn’t taking another job, PFT is usually right) that he’s going to retire.

So why go through the trouble of having your name associated with the “Dungy not retiring” talk? It will only be bad in the long run. Even if what you technically reported is true, you’ll only be remembered for reporting something that refuted what ended up being the truth. If I were you I would work my ass off to make sure I’m the one who officially breaks the “Dungy is retiring story.” That could redeem yourself just a little bit.

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While watching Ryan Grant slice through the Seahawks defense on Saturday, it suddenly hit me. This is the kind of running back Reggie Bush should be. A quick burst to turn the corner. Amazing cuts at full speed. The remarkable acceleration to blow by safeties even after being slowed by hits in the box.

Watch Grant get the corner below. Watch his other highlights from Saturday’s game.

Now take a look a this highlight video (or one of the many others ) of Bush at USC. Carefully watch some of Bush’s more standard runs. There’s a little more shake ‘n bake than with Grant, but the overall running style is pretty similar.

So what makes Grant the stud and Bush the dud? It’s hard to say. Probably Grant read his blockers better and therefore he’s able to hit the hole a split second faster. In the NFL that can make all the difference.

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Jack Del Rio and the Jags defense had a decent gameplan on Saturday night. They took away the deep ball and made Tom Brady dink and dunk his way down the field—the hope was that a sack, penalty, or dropped pass would kill a few drives. At the very least, the Jags hoped that when the Patriots got deep into their territory, the short field would allow them be a little more aggressive and maybe, just maybe, hold the Patriots to a field goal.

Since the way to beat the Patriots is to not give up big plays, try and hold them to field goals, and hope your offense scores a touchdown every time, it was a pretty solid strategy.

The problem was that the Jags made two crucial mistakes. The first was that in an effort to take away the big play, the Jags made it way too easy for the Patriots to move the ball into their territory. They never blizted and they handed Wes Welker 9-yard catches on a silver platter. There’s playing it safe, and then there’s playing it too safe. The Jags were playing it so safe there was no chance of getting that penalty,sack, or dropped pass that would kill a drive.

(I actually think the Jags would have been better off onside kicking after every score. They were basically letting the Patriots stroll into their territory anyway—giving the ball to the Patriots at their 40 would have meant nothing, and they might have gained a possession or two.)

The second mistake the Jags made was not adjusting their strategy when the clock became a factor. In the 4th quarter it became clear the Jaguars needed a stop, and to get a stop they needed pressure on Tom Brady. Because the Jags front four hadn’t gotten a whiff of Brady all day, that meant blitzing. It was the 4th quarter. If Moss beats you deep, so be it. Getting pressure on Brady is what’s important.

Instead the Jags continued to rush four. They occasionally brought a 5th guy, but it was usually a defensive back or a linebacker on a delayed blitz. Nothing they brought was the pocket-collapsing type of stuff you need to force a Tom Brady incompletion. The Jaguars never got the stop and eventually they ran out of time.

The only way to beat the Patriots is to get pressure on Brady. The Ravens and Giants did it with three and four man fronts. The Eagles did it with all-out blitzing. However you do it, you need to get pressure because when Brady can sit back and stare at the defense for three of four seconds he’s automatic. That’s one reason why the Chargers might have a chance—they have a good pass rush, and in the end, that’s really all that matters when you play the Patriots. Right now, the most important player in what remains of the NFL season is Shawne Merriman. If he can repeatedly get to Brady, the Chargers have a shot at pulling off the upset. If he fails (and Aaron Kampman or Usi Umenyiora fail after him), the Patriots should have an easy road to a Super Bowl title.

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Let me preface this by saying I am not some crazy conspiracy theorist digging for evidence that the NFL is secretly trying to get Brett Favre to the Super Bowl. This was merely my natural reaction the very first time I saw what I am about to show you. Mostly, I’m just writing this to see if anybody else out there noticed what I noticed. Ok, here it is…

Late in the first quarter the Packers were driving to try and tie the score at 14. In one of the games most crucial sequences, Bubba Franks caught a 3^rd down pass and was marked just shy of the first down. The Packers challenged the spot, and when the ball was re-spotted Franks had just enough for a first down.

Here’s what caught my eye. After the first down is given the official holding the chain pulls it away from the ball (into a position where the spot would have been short), and in doing so he make it look like there was extra slack in the chain during the measurement. You can see it in the video at about the 3:16 mark (if the link doesn’t work, the highlights can easily be found on NFL.com) and in the “before” and “after” pictures below. Additionally (and you can’t see this in the pictures), in the HD broadcast it kind of, sort of, maybe looked like there was some slack in the chain during the measurement. Unfortunately, you can’t get real good look because FOX was showing a replay and only cut to the very end of the measurement (was FOX in on it too?)

Ok. Now let’s debunk this. The most obvious explanation is that the official at the other end of the chain had already picked up his end and started walking away. That would easily explain why there was slack in the chain and everything would be wrapped up in a neat little package. Here’s the problem. I’ve watched a lot of football and I’ve never seen a chain move in that specific motion—and I’ve definitely never seen a chain move in that manner so fast after the first down was awarded. Look at how quickly the chain moves after the first down signal is given. If you’re the official ten yards away from the action on the other end, don’t you think you would wait for the official at the spot of the ball to move the chain before you did? It also looks a little like the official is surprised there was slack in the chain and immediately moves it back in the other direction to cover it up (ok, so that’s this is stretching it a little).

The other piece of evidence that shoots down my little theory is that Franks was initially spotted just inches shy of the first down. Unless the officials re-spotted the ball less than two inches from the initial spot, you can infer that Franks would have gotten the first down. The only counterargument to this is that the re-spotting could have also been part all the foul play (i.e. the officials were arbitrarily re-spotting the ball because they knew the phony measurement would result in a 1st down.)

In the words of Forest Gump, that’s about all I have to say about that. Again, I don’t truly believe all of this—I really just want to know if anybody out there noticed it too. Make of it what you will.

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